Eric Balchunas, a notable Bloomberg analyst, has voiced concerns about the U.S. SEC’s lack of action towards Ether ETF issuers. Balchunas forecasts a low 35% probability of Ether ETF approval by May, citing the SEC’s silence as the 73-day deadline approaches as a worrying sign.
According to Balchunas, this absence of communication from the SEC has led applicants to revise their Ether ETF applications. He underscores that while resubmission is typical, it is a time-consuming process which further aggravates the uncertainty.
Furthermore, Balchunas speculates on SEC Chairman Gary Gensler’s attitude towards Ether. He suggests that Gensler might still categorize Ether as a security. Balchunas implies this view might influence the SEC’s decision, given the potential for political backlash similar to the response to Bitcoin spot ETFs approval.
Balchunas also contrasts the process of securing Ether ETF approval with his experience with Bitcoin ETFs. He points out that the Ether application process is entirely different from Bitcoin ETFs — a situation he describes as “reverse”. Where there was a clear pathway with the Bitcoin ETFs, the Ether process appears to lack such guidance.
Sharing their unique insights, Nate Geraci, President of the ETF Store, and Matt Corva, General Counsel at Consensys, contributed to the conversation. Geraci labels the situation as “odd,” while Corva considers that an Ether ETF rejection could potentially benefit future developments.
Finally, Balchunas acknowledges Scott Johnsson’s, VB Capital’s general partner, speculation that the SEC might link its ETF decision to an analysis of price correlation between ETH and BTC futures and spot market prices. Agreeing with Johnsson’s hypothesis, Balchunas also suggests that rejecting the Ether ETFs is a more likely outcome.
As a culmination of his concerns, Balchunas earmarks November 5 as a vital date for all Ethereum ETF stakeholders. If the SEC chooses to reject all Ethereum ETF applications, the resulting fallout could impact both the crypto market broadly and the regulatory environment. It suggests an ongoing shift in the path of future ETF applications and serves as a warning for investors and Ethereum stakeholders.
